A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study found that US businesses and consumers bore nearly 90% of tariff costs in 2025, contradicting President Trump's assertions that foreign countries would pay. The Tax Foundation estimates the tariffs will generate $2 trillion in revenue over the next decade while costing average households $1,000-$1,300 annually.
New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York quantifies what economists predicted when President Trump imposed tariffs on imports from over 180 countries in 2025. The study found that US companies and consumers absorbed nearly 90% of the economic burden, with foreign exporters bearing only about 10% of the costs. This finding directly challenges Trump's repeated claims that other countries would 'eat' the additional costs.
The economic impact extends across American households, according to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation. Their analysis shows the tariffs amount to an average tax increase of $1,000 per US household in 2025, rising to $1,300 in 2026. The foundation characterizes this as the largest US tax increase as a percentage of GDP since 1993, representing 0.54% of GDP for 2026. Despite these costs, the tariffs are projected to generate substantial federal revenue — an estimated $2 trillion from 2026 to 2035.
Sources present the tariff burden findings through different editorial lenses. Some emphasize the contradiction between Trump's promises and economic reality, while others focus on the policy's revenue-generating potential alongside its costs.
The coverage reveals how outlets balance criticism of administration claims with straightforward reporting of economic data. While some sources frame the story as a direct contradiction of presidential statements, others present the Federal Reserve findings as standalone economic analysis without explicit political context.
Political resistance to the tariffs has emerged in Congress, where the House voted to cancel Trump's Canada tariffs amid what Bloomberg describes as growing 'midterm anxieties' among Republicans. Six House Republicans defied Trump to block the Canada tariffs, according to CNN, with the White House expecting 'substantial' GOP defections on the vote. This congressional pushback occurs as the administration pursues other consumer-focused policies, including a proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates.
The tariff debate unfolds as Americans face average credit card interest rates between 19.65% and 21.5%, according to Federal Reserve data. Trump's credit card proposal has drawn opposition from banking trade groups, with JPMorgan Chase's CFO calling a 10% cap 'very bad for consumers' during earnings calls. Legal experts suggest executive action on credit card rates would face significant hurdles since Congress, not the executive branch, typically sets statutory lending limits.
The Federal Reserve study confirms what multiple economic analyses have suggested about tariff incidence. While the tariffs generate federal revenue and advance the administration's trade policy goals, American consumers and businesses bear the direct cost burden. The long-term economic effects remain uncertain as the policy continues into 2026, with households facing higher costs even as the federal government collects additional revenue.
How coverage is distributed across the spectrum
Coverage spans 8 sources across different editorial perspectives, with mainstream financial and general news outlets dominating. No clear ideological clustering evident in source selection, with focus primarily on economic data reporting rather than partisan analysis.